Robert F. Bukaty | AP
By Michael Shepherd, BDN Employees •
November 6, 2018 eight:59 am
Up to date: November 6, 2018 9:37 am
Good Election Day morning from Augusta. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District could possibly be a fulcrum for partisan management of the U.S. Home of Representatives — although ranked-choice voting might delay the end result — and voters will determine who will maintain the keys to energy in Augusta.
Candidates have been stumping for last-minute votes through the weekend and Maine’s two biggest election are extremely unsure. U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a two-term Republican, and Assistant Maine Home Majority Chief Jared Golden, a Democrat, have been nearly tied in current polls and public polling has been scarce within the toss-up governor’s race.
There are numerous extra key points on the poll as properly, with all of Maine’s 186 legislative seats up for grabs with shut divisions in every chamber. The state might cross a controversial common residence care program and two congressional incumbents face three-way races for brand spanking new phrases.
A lot of individuals are taking a look at Maine’s 2nd District as a nationwide bellwether for management of the U.S. Home of Representatives. The biggest prize within the 2018 election is the Home, which Republicans have managed since 2010. Democrats are favored to take it again in a midterm yr for President Donald Trump, whereas Republicans will probably maintain the Senate.
Maine’s 2nd District is seen as a fulcrum. It went for Trump by 10 proportion factors in 2016 in a historic cut up of Maine, however Poliquin faces a troublesome matchup with Golden, a Marine veteran who outraised the incumbent behind a wave of particular person donors. If the incumbent hangs on, Republicans might stem the bleeding. A Golden win might portend a strong Democratic yr.
Between campaigns and out of doors cash, greater than $20 million has been spent on the race, in accordance to the Middle for Responsive Politics. The Wesleyan Media Venture stated the 2nd District noticed 6,300 TV advertisements over a nine-day stretch in October — greater than some other Home race.
Golden has seized largely on Poliquin’s vote for the Republican plan to exchange the Reasonably priced Care Act, whereas the Republican has fired again by evaluating his A score with the Nationwide Rifle Affiliation to Golden’s D score in a district that sank a 2016 gun management referendum.
Ranked-choice voting might be in play for congressional races. If neither Poliquin or Golden make it to a majority within the first spherical of tallying, voters who decide longshot independents Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar might come into play. Ranked-choice tallies gained’t be launched till subsequent week.
It’s exhausting to inform the place the governor’s race stands going into Election Day. We had a reasonably good concept that Gov. Paul LePage was at the least favored to win presently in 2010 and 2014, although polls overestimated his lead within the first election and underestimated it within the second. Nevertheless, we’ve nowhere close to the extent of confidence about this election in 2018.
All indications are that it’s a two-person race between Lawyer Basic Janet Mills, a Democrat, and Republican businessman Shawn Moody. Mills led in the newest public ballot within the race at October’s finish, however there have solely been three public polls since August.
After the final ballot, Mills stated her polling signifies “a dead heat” with Moody. The Republican advised a reporter on Sunday in Augusta that he feels “the same grassroots support” that led him to a surprisingly dominant victory within the June main for his celebration’s gubernatorial nomination.
Whereas State Treasurer Terry Hayes, an unbiased, is a longshot to win, her vote complete is value watching within the plurality race. She hasn’t cracked double-digits in any public ballot, however Republicans have tried to increase her with liberals in mailers and advertisements in a bankshot bid to defeat Mills. Democrats have lengthy referred to as for her to depart the race.
Legislative races and Query 1 on the poll are additionally unsure, whereas two congressional incumbents and bond questions are favored to win. Yesterday, we stated that management of the Maine Senate is a toss-up, whereas Democrats are in all probability favored to maintain management of the Home of Representatives. The biggest races fall into three important classes — perennial swing seats and potential Democratic pick-ups in southern Maine and Republican pick-ups in rural areas.
Mainers will even vote on Query 1, a referendum for a common residence care program to be funded a brand new tax on revenue and wages above $128,400. It’s proposed by the Maine Individuals’s Alliance, and the tax scheme has drawn a lot of the opposition from enterprise teams and politicians of all stripes. It led in an August ballot, although it indicated probably mushy help.
Unbiased U.S. Sen. Angus King is favored to win a second and certain remaining time period over state Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, and Democrat Zak Ringelstein. U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, a Democrat from Maine’s 1st District, is probably going to fend off a ranked-choice voting problem from state Rep. Marty Grohman, I-Biddeford, and Republican Mark Holbrook, although the race might warmth up if Grohman can overtake Holbrook within the first spherical of voting.
Little or no opposition has emerged for 4 bond questions, which suggest borrowing for upgrades to transportation and water remedy methods, in addition to tasks on college system and group school campuses. In all, the 4 questions ask Mainers to borrow a further $200 million, which can set off matching funds from different sources.
By the point you learn this, polls shall be open all through Maine. They need to open by eight a.m. and shut at eight p.m. Quickly after that, outcomes from the state’s greater than 580 precincts will start pouring in to be tabulated by the BDN’s well-oiled election night time group. Secretary of State Matt Dunlap is anticipating 65 % turnout, excessive for a non-presidential yr election.
Monitor all the outcomes by clicking right here. Need a journey to the polls? Click on right here to learn how to get one within the Bangor space. Click on right here for info about free rides in Higher Portland.
If you are nonetheless unclear on what awaits you on the poll, click on right here. To learn about how the candidates for Maine Senate stand on key points, click on right here. For Maine Home candidates’ responses to the identical questions, click on right here. And to monitor all the cash outdoors teams are spending to affect this yr’s Maine elections, click on right here.
If you nonetheless have questions about the voting course of, click on right here, then click on on the inexperienced bubble on the proper and somebody from the BDN will assist you discover solutions.
What you is perhaps requested to signal
Three totally different Maine teams have lively citizen initiative petitions, together with one for a brand new paid sick depart referendum from the Maine Individuals’s Alliance. Mainers can anticipate representatives of these teams to be at polling locations, soliciting a number of the greater than 61,000 signatures wanted to get their petitions on a future poll.
Probably the most notable one is from the Maine Individuals’s Alliance, which was simply allowed to start amassing signatures for a referendum to create a statewide paid sick depart program. The invoice require Maine employers to present eligible staff with earned paid sick depart at a fee of a minimum of one hour for each 30 hours labored and permit staff to use 40 hours per yr.
It instantly drew the ire of enterprise pursuits, with David Clough, state director of the Nationwide Federation of Unbiased Companies, saying the trouble is “extreme” and “will lead to fewer jobs at small companies to the ultimate benefit of large corporations.”
Lots of you may even see petitioners for 2 different referendum efforts focused on the 2019 poll — these to permit physicians to assist terminally unwell individuals finish their lives in Maine and to cross a state regulation banning feminine genital mutilation. The human rights violation is a cultural follow in African and Center Japanese nations and it’s already federally unlawful.
— The governor plans to transfer to Florida when his time period ends. Maine Public studies that in a rally for Republicans outdoors the State Home on Monday, LePage reiterated that he would take up everlasting residence in Florida and maybe train at an undisclosed location there. He advised WVOM this morning that he can be keen on educating finance or presidential historical past. The governor and his spouse, Ann LePage, have lengthy owned property in Florida, and earlier this yr they bought a house that they had purchased in Boothbay. LePage stated he would transfer no matter whom Mainers elect to succeed him as a result of the tax panorama is best within the Sunshine State.
— Bangor is learning the feasibility of putting in photo voltaic arrays on metropolis property. Metropolis councilors on Monday agreed to spend $eight,600 to research how a lot it might value the town to construct and function photo voltaic arrays on municipal properties, in addition to what power financial savings would come from these investments. The town can pay for the 19-day research with funds that it had already budgeted for an audit of its power provide.
— Congress isn’t working the best way this nation’s founders anticipated it will. A prolonged evaluation by ProPublica and the Washington Submit examines how the legislative department has veered off target from what was envisioned by those that wrote the Structure. After greater than 200 years of crafting compromise laws and serving as a verify on the chief department, Congress has morphed right into a weakened legislative department during which debate is strictly curtailed, get together leaders dictate the agenda, most elected representatives not often get a say and authorities shutdowns are a daily menace due to persistent failures to agree on budgets. The modifications have given partisan leaders much more energy than they ever wielded and primarily shelved significant committee work and blocked newer members from enjoying vital roles within the legislative course of.
— Questioning how we acquired to this level? So are we. However Alexis de Tocqueville provided a reasonably good evaluation of how it began together with his seminal and far studied “Democracy in America,” first revealed in 1835. Click on right here to learn the primary ebook of that treatise on democratic revolution if you are feeling nostalgic or need to kill a while in a polling place line.
Vote together with your ft
We’re drained. You’re drained.
We’re busy. You’re busy.
So we’re going to make this fast and straightforward.
Simply vote in your personal soundtrack in the present day. Listed here are the candidates:
— Soundtrack Candidate A represents the tutorial rap celebration.
— Soundtrack Candidate B represents the early childhood youth in movement celebration.
— Soundtrack Candidate C represents the marginally inaccurate advocacy social gathering. [Can you find the mistake?]
— Soundtrack Candidate D represents the “Why the empire fell” celebration.
— Soundtrack Candidate E represents the kinder, gentler days of yore get together.
There can be no ranked decisions. Vote for one, Vote for all of them. Faucet the candidate that makes you faucet your ft. Vote for something that provides slightly pleasure and concord to your day.
Democracy in motion, child. Right here is my soundtrack. — Robert Lengthy
At the moment’s Daily Brief was written by Michael Shepherd, Alex Acquisto and Robert Lengthy. If you’re studying this on the BDN’s web site or have been forwarded it, click on right here to obtain Maine’s main publication on state politics by way of e mail on weekday mornings. Click on right here to subscribe to the BDN.